Tool · Payment Shock

Why the payment jumps in year two — before it does

Your escrow at closing is built from the seller’s current tax bill. After the county reassesses at your purchase price, the tax rises and RESPA spreads the shortage over a year — so the payment spikes. This estimates that jump from public county rates, and names every piece.

As of Jul 5, 2026Methodology payment-shock-v1
$
$

From the listing — what the seller pays now. Your escrow at closing is sized from this.

%

Effective rate applied to your purchase price after the county reassesses.

$

Estimated year-2 payment jump

+$46/mo

at the first adjustment, then ~$23/mo ongoing after the shortage is repaid.

Year-1 escrow (from seller’s bill)$399/mo
Year-2 ongoing escrow (reassessed)$422/mo
Shortage catch-up (≈12 months, RESPA)$23/mo
Peak monthly escrow (year 2)$444/mo

Escrow at closing is sized from the seller’s tax bill. After the county reassesses at your purchase price, the tax rises and — under RESPA — the servicer spreads the prior year’s shortage over the next 12 months, so the payment peaks before settling. This is the mechanism, not a prediction of your exact bill; assessment ratios, caps, and exemptions vary by jurisdiction.

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